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Trend of homicide in São Paulo city: an intra-urban analysis
  1. MFT Peres,
  2. RB Levy,
  3. O Luiz,
  4. A Grangeiro
  1. 1University of Säo Paulo Medical School, Säo Paulo, Brazil; 2University of Säo Paulo, Center for the Study of Violence, Säo Paulo, Brazil


    The homicide mortality rate (HMR) is declining consistently in São Paulo, Brazil. From 2001 to 2008 HMR dropped by 74% in the city. Few studies tried to analyse homicide trends in different areas of São Paulo city.

    Objective A. to analyse the trend of HMR in the 96 administrative districts (AD) of São Paulo Municipality (SPM) from 2000 to 2010

    B. to describe the characteristics of homicide death and the sociodemographic and economic conditions of areas with distinct homicide time trends.

    Methods Trends of HMR was analysed through simple linear regression. Regression coefficients were standardised for comparison between the districts and were used as basis for the stratification into terciles.

    Results Significant trends were found for 89 AD's. Trends ranged from −0.298 to −0.2038 (p<0,05). Areas with more accelerated fall presented worse socioeconomic conditions, higher proportion of men and youth in the population The proportion of low schooling, black and young (15–24-years-old) between the victims are higher in such areas, as well as the contribution of firearms to death.

    Conclusions HMR is falling in different areas of SPM. More intense fall is being noticed in areas with characteristics that are associated with higher risk for Homicide death (low socioeconomic conditions, high proportion of youth and men in population). Characteristics of the victims in areas with more accelerated trend suggests that fall is more proeminent for homicide committed with firearm, and which victim has low schooling level and are black.

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