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The effects of the lower ignition propensity cigarettes standard in Estonia: time-series analysis
  1. Indrek Saar
  1. Correspondence to Dr Indrek Saar, Estonian Academy of Security Sciences, Kase 61, Tallinn 12012, Estonia; indrek.saar{at}


Background In 2011, the lower ignition propensity (LIP) standard for cigarettes was implemented in the European Union. Evidence about the impact of that safety measure is scarce.

Objective The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the LIP standard on fire safety in Estonia.

Methods The absolute level of smoking-related fire incidents and related deaths was modelled using dynamic time-series regression analysis. The data about house fire incidents for the 2007–2013 period were obtained from the Estonian Rescue Board.

Results Implementation of the LIP standard has reduced the monthly level of smoking-related fires by 6.2 (p<0.01, SE=1.95) incidents and by 26% (p<0.01, SE=9%) when estimated on the log scale. Slightly weaker evidence was found about the fatality reduction effects of the LIP regulation. All results were confirmed through counterfactual models for non-smoking-related fire incidents and deaths.

Conclusions This paper indicates that implementation of the LIP cigarettes standard has improved fire safety in Estonia.

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  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.