Original articleExamining trajectories of adolescent risk factors as predictors of subsequent high-risk driving behavior
Section snippets
Subjects and data collection
As part of a substance abuse prevention study, self-administered questionnaire data including demographic, substance use, and psychosocial variables, were collected from students in two cohorts (the high school graduating classes of 1991 and 1992). Questionnaires were administered at seven time points in six southeastern Michigan public school districts beginning in the fall of 1984. The graduating class of 1991 was followed from grade 6 (about age 11–12 years) to grade 12, and the class of
Results
Results from the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for the logistic models and the likelihood ratio test for the Poisson models indicated that all but one model fit well. For the logistic models, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test p values ranged from .14 to .99. Only one model (3-year alcohol-related crashes as the outcome with the susceptibility to peer pressure trajectories) did not fit well (p = .04). All Poisson models had goodness-of-fit p values that ranged from .87 to .99.
All four predictor
Discussion
Young people’s alcohol use, friends’ support for drinking, susceptibility to peer pressure, and tolerance of deviance increase during adolescence, and have been shown previously to be important predictors of various health risk behaviors. Each of these measures represents a system (social environment, personality, and behavior) in Jessor’s Problem Behavior Theory 13, 14, 18. The results of this study provide further support for the importance of these adolescent measures in predicting
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Grants RO1 AA09026 and RO1 AA06324. The authors are grateful for the support and assistance of the local school districts, the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office, and the research staff.
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