Fatality risk assessment and modeling of drivers responsibility for causing traffic accidents in Dubai
Introduction
The epidemic of road traffic accident deaths and injuries is a worldwide public health problem. It is estimated that one million people lose their lives each year as a result of road traffic accidents, and about 10 million suffer permanent disability (Murray & Lopez, 1997). Estimates that are reported by the World Health Organization (WHO, 1999) rank road traffic accidents as the 10th leading cause of mortality and burden in all WHO member states. It is predicted that in the year 2020, they will occupy third place worldwide, after clinical depression and coronary heart disease, and second place for developing countries, after clinical depression, accounting for “one in every 20 lost years of healthy life” (Seymour, 1996). Each accident has costs in terms of loss in human and material resources, loss of production and suffering, and putting more burden on low and middle-income economies.
In contrast to high-income countries that have experienced substantial drops in traffic fatality rates, developing countries are experiencing a declining situation. In developing countries such as the United Arab Emirates (U.A.E.), motor-vehicle-related mortalities frequently exceed those of the industrialized nations of North America and Europe (El-Sadig, Lloyd, McGillivray, Romilly, & Bener, 2002). According to official reports (Ministry of Health Annual Statistical Abstracts, 1995–1999), traffic accidents are ranked second of all causes of death in the U.A.E. after respiratory diseases.
Although the U.A.E. is categorized as a developing country, corresponding health and economic indicators rank the country among the prosperous nations. It has an infant mortality rate comparable to those in Western Europe and North America (UNICEF, 2000). The country commands a considerable wealth of oil and nearly no unemployment. It has a GNP per capita that is the highest among the Gulf states, excluding Kuwait, and exceeds those of many of the newly industrialized Asian countries such as Malaysia and South Korea (World Bank, 1999). This wealth has manifested significantly in building the country's infrastructure, including rapid construction of road networks to meet international standards as well as a significant increase in the level of motorization, from an estimated 13 vehicles per 100 persons in 1979 to 24 vehicles per 100 persons in 1999. Moreover, the enormous economic growth in the country has resulted in huge increases in the population, dominated by an overwhelming majority of expatriates (76% of the total population according to 1995 census) who enter the country for work or as dependents of expatriate workers.
These new high levels of motorization in addition to the presence of a large number of expatriates in the country are potential explanations for the increased problem of road traffic accidents in the U.A.E. Ofosu, Abouammoh, and Bener (1988) made similar observations regarding Saudi Arabia, arguing that differences in cultures, habits, and attitudes can create safety-related problems on the road. Human errors such as careless driving, exceeding the speed limits, and ignorance of traffic rules and regulations ranked first in the causes of traffic accidents in the U.A.E. (Ministry of Interior Annual Statistical Abstracts, 1995–1999). Drunk driving and factors due to road deficiencies and environmental risks have limited contributions to accidents in the U.A.E., as revealed in recent official statistics; this could mainly be attributed to strict cultural and social codes regarding alcohol consumption, and to significant investments in road networks design and maintenance. The country's desert climate promotes clear vision for drivers and maintains risk-free road surfaces for most of the year, which means that environmental and hazardous conditions have a limited or nonexistent role in traffic accidents.
The positive image of the environmental conditions is quickly overshadowed by the high traffic injury and death rates in the country compared to other nations and negates the huge personal and economic cost to the U.A.E. society that results from road crashes. El-Sadig et al. (2002) suggest a number of underlying factors that might explain the high road traffic morbidity and mortality rates in the U.A.E. One possible factor is that vehicle type changed from heavier models that resist deformation to lighter and smaller interior models that came into existence after the 1974 and the 1980 oil crisis. The latter models are linked with higher occupant death rates. However, the most persistent factor is possibly due to failure in casualty management. El-Sadig et al. (2002) address the increasing difficulty of managing serious injuries in the U.A.E., citing little or no knowledge of first aid in the community, a lack of well-trained personnel in casualty handling, and insufficient management of a well-equipped ambulance system.
In recent years, awareness about the considerable problem of traffic accidents in the U.A.E. has increased, particularly among policy makers, public health professionals, and the scientific community. However, responses on how to reduce the risk have been minuscule, and controlling the epidemic remains quite difficult.
The first objective of this research is to discuss the magnitude of road traffic fatalities and injuries using data from Dubai Emirate in the U.A.E. and compare the situation with that of some developed countries. The multi-racial structure of the U.A.E. society suggests further analysis that attempt to identify groups of the population who are over-involved in fatal traffic injuries, which constitutes the second objective. The third objective involves extending the investigation to estimate odds ratios and to predict the probability of a driver being responsible for causing a traffic accident based on selected predictors and driver attributes. This process provides possible means to identify attributes and characteristics of dangerous drivers and suggests preventive measures to reduce accident risk. The paper concludes with some remarks and policy recommendations.
Section snippets
The data
The data used in the analysis were compiled from Dubai police reports based on fatal and injured casualties involved in traffic accidents that occurred during the period from January 1, 1995 to December 31, 1999 in Dubai Emirate. Besides fatalities and injuries, the police records identify several details describing the casualties, the vehicle(s) involved, and the location where the accident took place. Data regarding the number of registered vehicles and relevant statistics are contained
Traffic fatalities in Dubai in an international context
It is advantageous to view traffic fatalities in an international context in order to address Dubai Emirate developments in the area of traffic safety. As such, data on fatal casualties were obtained for the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia and trend analysis results from 1995 to 1999 were observed. International comparability is subject to variation in population, road structure, and traffic composition, prompting a need for a relevant exposure measure. Three measures of exposures
Conclusions
The study contributes to identifying and quantifying some important risk factors relating to traffic accident mortality and morbidity in the Emirate of Dubai. The results presented serve a variety of purposes including: (a) examining Dubai Emirate developments in traffic safety compared to other countries, (b) assessing fatality risk among the different populations in the Emirate, and most importantly (c) to inform safety and planning practitioners of possible traffic mortality and morbidity
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank the U.A.E. University Research Affairs for supporting this work, and Dubai Police for assisting in data provision.
Ibrahim Mohamed Abdalla is Assistant Professor, CBE, Department of Statistics, United Arab Emirates University. He has a PhD in Applied Statistics from Napier University. His area of interest is in applied statistics, in particular accident data analysis, social, economic and spatial statistics and epidemiological studies.
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Ibrahim Mohamed Abdalla is Assistant Professor, CBE, Department of Statistics, United Arab Emirates University. He has a PhD in Applied Statistics from Napier University. His area of interest is in applied statistics, in particular accident data analysis, social, economic and spatial statistics and epidemiological studies.