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Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents

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Abstract

This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in important locations along east and west coasts of India for the period 2000–2010. Results include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their spatial distributions. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern India, with a non-uniform spatial distribution. August and October are identified as most favorable for rip current generation. In India, rip current-related drowning is estimated as 39 per year during the last decade. East coast of India averaged 30–40 drownings, and west coast of India averaged 5–10 drownings per year. In coastal Andhra Pradesh, more than 350 people had been drowned due to rip currents and only 10 people were rescued. Visakhapatnam recorded highest drowning (293); R. K. beach is the most vulnerable potential rip current zones. From 2007 onward, rip current deaths increased at an alarming rate. The frequency of rip current drownings increased markedly during shore-normal wave incidence and mid-low tidal stages. A new empirical forecasting technique has been developed for prediction of rip current risk in India for the first time. FORTRAN-based software was developed to generate automatic rip current forecast report for any given location. The scale’s performance was tested with field data and by using different statistical methods. The new predictive scale is predicting rip current occurrences reasonably well.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Police Commissioner of Visakhapatnam city for providing dataset on rip current drownings. We also thank our senior professor Prof. B. S. R. Reddy for his constructive suggestions during the preparation of this manuscript. We also deeply acknowledge Randy Lascody and James Lushine of NOAA National Weather Service, Florida, and Prof. G. Bharathi for motivating suggestions during the initial preparation of this paper. The first author would like to thank CSIR, New Delhi, for providing fellowship during the study. We equally thank Dr. B. R. Subramaniam, Director, and Dr. V. Ranga Rao ICMAM, MoES, Government of India, for their wonderful co-operation during the execution of our Gangavaram—SLM project. We thank Dr. K. V. K. R. K. Patnaik and Mr. Ch. Venkata Ramu for their comments and discussions throughout this paper. We equally thank anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestion in improving the quality of the paper. This paper is proudly dedicated to rip current fatalities in India.

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Correspondence to S. V. V. Arun Kumar.

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Arun Kumar, S.V.V., Prasad, K.V.S.R. Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents. Nat Hazards 70, 313–335 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0812-x

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