Table 3

Observed rescues versus predicted coast-wide risk of adverse water event

Risk level2011–20132015–2017
Events*Total%EventsTotal%
Daily model†
 131132.711720.6
 211120.981057.1
 3111139.7159515.8
 42311220.5238826.1
 57011361.96614445.8
3-hour-step model‡
 103950.024810.4
 233940.833810.8
 363941.5103093.2
 4193944.8223306.7
 510339426.15836915.7
  • *Events: rescues and drownings.

  • †Goodness of fit: p=0.20, calibration test p<0.001. Brier scores: 0.10 for 2011–2013, 0.12 for 2015–2017.

  • ‡Goodness of fit: p=0.53, calibration test p=0.10. Brier scores: 0.05 for 2011–2013, 0.05 for 2015–2017.