Table 1

Weights and goodness of fit from the synthetic control analyses for Delaware, Washington and Colorado

	Long gun+handgun background checks			Handgun background checks			Long gun background checks
	Delaware	Washington	Colorado	Delaware	Washington	Colorado	Delaware	Washington	Colorado
Alabama	0	0	0	0	0	0.035	0	0	0
Alaska	0	0	0	0	0.023	0.23	0	0.028	0
Arizona	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.152	0
Florida	0.538	0.574	0	0	0.351	0	0.287	0.273	0
Georgia	0.462	0	0	0.178	0	0	0.41	0	0
Kentucky	0	0	0.103	0	0	0.286	0	0	0
Minnesota	0	0.008	0	0.719	0.342	0	0	0	0
Montana	0	0	0.08	0	0	0	0	0	0.186
Nevada	0	0.078	0	0	0	0	0	0.312	0
New Hampshire	0	0.289	0.149	0	0.08	0.134	0	0.207	0
New Mexico	0	0	0.334	0	0	0.023	0	0	0.353
North Dakota	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.028	0
Ohio	0	0.002	0	0	0	0	0.303	0	0
South Dakota	0	0	0	0	0.194	0	0	0	0
Utah	0	0.047	0	0.102	0.01	0	0	0	0
Virginia	0	0	0.079	0	0	0	0	0	0.324
Wyoming	0	0	0.255	0	0	0.292	0	0	0.137
RMSPE average of all states in the donor pool	167.4	108.1	140.9	59.3	32.1	77.8	109.9	92.4	69.3
RMSPE synthetic control	30.6	19.4	97.5	12.3	10.7	43.7	13.8	10.7	58.4
% Reduction in RMSPE	81.7	82.1	30.8	79.3	66.7	43.9	87.5	88.4	15.8

The table only include states with weights >0. RMSPE is a measure of the discrepancies between the trends in background check rates before the implementation of CBC policies in Delaware, Washington and Colorado and each state’s synthetic counterpart. It is estimated as the square root of the mean square difference between the treated state and its synthetic control.
CBC, Comprehensive background check; RMSPE, root mean square prediction error.