Table 1

Values used in the Markov model evaluating bike lane construction in 2015 versus the status quo

Variables	Abbreviation in tree diagram	Base	SD	Low	High	Data sources
Lifetime medical costs per capita ($)
Fatal injury	cMedicald	11 973	5000			CDC10
Non-fatal injury	cMedicali	57 764		53 210	136 067	CDC10
Death costs per capita ($)	cFuneral	7306	5000			National Funeral Directors Association11
Programme costs total/per capita ($)
Implementation		8 109 511/0.97	0.77			Elvik et al.;13 Bushell et al.;12 Litman;14 Zegeer15
Maintenance per year		532 971/0.06	0.06			Elvik et al.;13 Bushell et al.;12 Litman;14 Zegeer15
Probability of injury
Non-riders	pInjury	0.0004		0	0.0008	NYS DMV;18 NYS DOH19
Bike riders	pInjuryBike	0.0008	0.0003			CDC;10 Statista7
Case fatality ratio	pDeadi	0.08		0	0.15	NYS DMV18
Probability of riding bikes, status quo	pBike	0.013	0.003			ACS, 2009–2013
Increase in bike ridership, Vision Zero (%)		9.32	1			NYC DOT (2015b)
HR, injury, Vision Zero	HRcycle	0.83	0.1			NYC DOT (2015c); Elvik et al13
HRQL, injured	uInjury	0.55				EQ5D survey
Average age (years)		36	10			New York City Department of City Planning, 2012
LE gain, Vision Zero (years)
From physical activity	LEgain_pa	0.033		0	0.04	Rabl and De Nazelle17
From reduced pollution	LEgain_p	0.047		0	0.05	Rabl and De Nazelle17

HRQL, health-related quality of life; LE, life expectancy; NYC, New York City.
Note: New York City Department of Transportation. 2015b. 2014 NYC In-Season Cycling Indicator - An Estimate of Trends in Regular Cycling for Transportation [Online]. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/downloads/pdf/2014-isci.pdf (accessed 13 Jul 2015). New York City Department of Transportation. 2015c. Manhattan Pedestrian Safety Action Plan [Online]. http://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/downloads/pdf/ped-safety-action-plan-manhattan.pdf (accessed 14 Jul 2015). New York City Department of City Planning. 2014. Population Facts [Online]. http://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/data-maps/nyc-population/population-facts.page (accessed 8 Jan 2015).