Table 1

Values used in the Markov model evaluating bike lane construction in 2015 versus the status quo

VariablesAbbreviation in tree diagramBaseSDLowHighData sources
Lifetime medical costs per capita ($)
 Fatal injurycMedicald11 9735000CDC10
 Non-fatal injurycMedicali57 76453 210136 067
 Death costs per capita ($)cFuneral73065000National Funeral Directors Association11
Programme costs total/per capita ($)
 Implementation8 109 511/0.970.77Elvik et al.;13 Bushell et al.;12 Litman;14 Zegeer15
 Maintenance per year532 971/0.060.06
Probability of injury
 Non-riderspInjury0.000400.0008NYS DMV;18 NYS DOH19
 Bike riderspInjuryBike0.00080.0003CDC;10 Statista7
 Case fatality ratiopDeadi0.0800.15NYS DMV18
 Probability of riding bikes, status quopBike0.0130.003ACS, 2009–2013
 Increase in bike ridership, Vision Zero (%)9.321NYC DOT (2015b)
 HR, injury, Vision ZeroHRcycle0.830.1NYC DOT (2015c); Elvik et al13
 HRQL, injureduInjury0.55EQ5D survey
Average age (years)3610New York City Department of City Planning, 2012
LE gain, Vision Zero (years)
 From physical activityLEgain_pa0.03300.04Rabl and De Nazelle17
 From reduced pollutionLEgain_p0.04700.05Rabl and De Nazelle17