Multivariate predictors of annual Harris County single-family submersions Poisson-Lognormal-CAR model coefficients and 95% credible intervals (N=786 census tracts)
| DepVar: log of annual number of single-family submersions per 100 per tract | ||
|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | |
| N | 786 | 786 |
| Df | 775 | 779 |
| Number of samples | 200 000 | 200 000 |
| Number of ‘burn in’ samples | 100 000 | 100 000 |
| Log likelihood | −8366.1 | −8130.6 |
| AIC | 16 754.3 | 16 275.2 |
| BIC | 16 805.6 | 16 307.9 |
| Deviance | 15 589.5**** | 15 123.8**** |
| Mean absolute deviation | 4.34 | 3.08 |
| Mean-squared error | 3558.9 | 612.7 |
| Dispersion multiplier | 45.2**** | 43.6**** |
| Coefficient | (95% credible interval) | Coefficient | (95% credible interval) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modelled parameters | ||||
| Constant | −16.5050 | (−23.9792 to −11.5879) | −13.1852 | (−16.1096 to −10.4492) |
| Socioeconomic variables | ||||
| African-American population | 0.0004 | (−0.0007 to 0.0013) | – | – |
| Asian population | −0.0003 | (−0.0030 to 0.0021) | – | – |
| Hispanic population | 0.0008 | (−0.0001 to 0.0017) | – | – |
| Median household income ($'000) | −0.00003 | (−0.00005 to 0.0001) | – | – |
| Exposure variables | ||||
| Number of single-family pools | 0.0131 | (0.0060 to 0.0208) | 0.0120 | (0.0069 to 0.0175) |
| Number of children, ages 0–17, in single-family residences | −0.0007 | (−0.0005 to 0.0020) | 0.0014 | (0.0004 to 0.0024) |
| Statistical controls | ||||
| Area of tract (m2) | −0.1674 | (−0.4486 to 0.0885) | −0.1633 | (−0.4545 to 0.0785) |
| Distance to city centre (m) | 0.1792 | (0.0161 to 0.3515) | 0.1170 | (−0.0413 to 0.2669) |
| Unmeasured spatial effect | ||||
| Spatial autocorrelation (Φ) | −0.0014 | (−0.0753 to 0.0630) | −0.0007 | (−0.0547 to 0.0476) |
****p≤0.0001.
[Bold] represents significant beyond the 0.0001 credible interval. AIC, Aikaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; CAR, Conditional Autoregressive; Df, degrees of freedom.