Multivariate predictors of annual Harris County multifamily submersions Poisson-Lognormal-CAR model coefficients and 95% credible intervals (N=786 census tracts)
| DepVar: log of annual number of multifamily submersions per 100 per tract | ||
|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | |
| N | 786 | 786 |
| Df | 775 | 779 |
| Number of samples | 200 000 | 200 000 |
| Number of ‘burn in’ samples | 100 000 | 100 000 |
| Log likelihood | −6022.7 | −6008.5 |
| AIC | 12 067.4 | 12 031.1 |
| BIC | 12 118.8 | 12 063.7 |
| Deviance | 11 023.0**** | 11 007.8**** |
| Mean absolute deviation | 2.62 | 2.33 |
| Mean-squared error | 201.1 | 74.6 |
| Dispersion multiplier | 44.8**** | 40.6**** |
| Coefficient | (95% credible interval) | Coefficient | (95% credible interval) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modeled parameters | ||||
| Constant | −15.5845 | (−22.2055 to −9.9184) | −13.9681 | (−17.8787 to −10.7023) |
| Socioeconomic variables | ||||
| African-American population | 0.0008 | (−0.0002 to 0.0018) | – | – |
| Asian population | 0.0031 | (0.0009 to 0.0055) | – | – |
| Hispanic population | 0.0005 | (−0.0003 to 0.0013) | – | – |
| Median household income ($'000) | −0.00005 | (−0.0001 to 0.00 004) | – | – |
| Exposure variables | ||||
| Number of multifamily pools | 0.7669 | (0.4301 to 1.1507) | 0.6825 | (0.3748 to 1.0107) |
| Number of children, ages 0–17, in multifamily residences | 0.0023 | (−0.00001 to 0.0048) | 0.0038 | (0.0019 to 0.0059) |
| Statistical controls | ||||
| Area of tract (m2) | −0.0047 | (−0.3178 to 0.2876) | −0.0355 | (−0.4086 to 0.2171) |
| Distance to city centre (m) | 0.0504 | (−0.1704 to 0.2444) | 0.0428 | (−0.1138 to 0.2046) |
| Unmeasured spatial effect | ||||
| Spatial autocorrelation (Φ) | −0.0015 | (−0.0711 to 0.0551) | −0.0031 | (−0.0760 to 0.0467) |
****p≤0.0001.
[Bold] represents significant beyond the 0.0001 credible interval. AIC, Aikaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion; CAR, Conditional Autoregressive; Df, degrees of freedom.