Table 8

One-way sensitivity analysis

ParameterBase-caseRange of valuesCost per scald avoided
Base-case minimum cost of installation incurred by Housing Association and costs of education materials incurred by NHS (£13.68) (£)£13.68£9.58–17.78Cost savings of £12 653; cost savings of £1892
Risk reduction using TMVs0.680.48–0.88£242; cost savings of £11 363
Number of children aged 0–4 years having bath water scalds per annum653457–849£405; cost savings of £11 411
Percentage of children 0–4 years with bath water scald requiring ≥5 days hospitalisation or transfer to specialist hospital or unit23%16–30%Cost savings of £4680 (based on treatment costs decreasing to £22 633); cost savings of £10 229 (based on treatment costs increasing to £28 182)
Percentage of children 0–4 years with bath water scald requiring ≥5 days hospitalisation or transfer to specialist hospital or unit (based on wider societal treatment costs of £71 902)23%16–30%Cost savings of £53 949 (based on treatment costs remaining at £71 902 as per HWBLF response)
Estimated number of affected households in social housing in the UK582 700407 890–757 510Cost savings of £12 659; cost savings of £1887
Maximum cost of purchasing and installation of TMVs and educational materials£273.96£191.77–356.15£226 451–442 181
Base-case minimum cost of installation incurred by Housing Association and costs of education materials incurred by NHS (£13.68) (£) with treatment costs based on wider societal treatment costs of £71 902£71 902£50 331–93 473Cost savings of £32 378; cost savings of £75 520
Estimate of the proportion of all admissions and attendances that occur to children living in social housing (59%)3.4941–77%£571; cost savings of £11 459
Estimate for admitted patients only297/437Cost savings of £1614–45 062
  • TMV, thermostatic mixer valve.