Table 1

Output of modelling chain for both scenarios: amount of distance travelled, number of victims and health burden expressed in years lived with disability (YLD) and years life lost (YLL) for both fatal and hospitalised victims (absolute and rates per 100 000 inhabitants)

Road user categoryAgePopulationBase scenario 2007Fuel scenario
Distance travelled (109 km)Hospital victimsDisability (YLD) (95% range)YLD/100 000 inhabitants (95% range)Fatal victimsYLL (95% range)YLL/100 000 inhabitants (95% range)Distance travelled (109 km)Hospital victimsDisability (YLD) (95% range)YLD/100 000 inhabitants (95% range)Fatal victimsYLL (95% range)YLL/100 000 inhabitants (95% range)
Drivers18–341 532 85912.659901880 (1121 to 2841)123 (73 to 185)1387185 (7056 to 7310)469 (460 to 477)11.398951701 (1016 to 2585)111 (66 to 169)1256503 (6384 to 6618)424 (416 to 432)
35–542 108 53824.14677857 (476 to 1366)41 (23 to 65)893172 (3052 to 3290)150 (145 to 156)21.83614777 (424 to 1256)37 (20 to 60)812882 (2770 to 2998)137 (131 to 142)
55–64920 8616.68138106 (34 to 228)12 (4 to 25)23519 (489 to 548)56 (53 to 60)5.8612194 (30 to 206)10 (3 to 22)20450 (423 to 479)49 (46 to 52)
>641 242 0853.8613241 (12 to 96)3 (1 to 8)25274 (220 to 327)22 (18 to 26)3.2110833 (8 to 82)3 (1 to 7)21230 (181 to 278)19 (15 to 22)
Total 5 804 343 47.33 1937 2884 (1643 to 4531) 50 (28 to 78) 275 11 150 (10 817 to 11 475) 192 (186 to 198) 42.29 1738 2605 (1478 to 4129) 45 (25 to 71) 247 10 065 (9758 to 10 373) 173 (168 to 179)
Passenger18–34 5.76315531 (224 to 971)35 (15 to 63)211149 (1091 to 1199)75 (71 to 78)5.95327551 (233 to 1009)36 (15 to 66)231256 (1197 to 1307)82 (78 to 85)
35–54 4.74139142 (32 to 344)7 (2 to 16)8303 (264 to 342)14 (13 to 16)4.92144148 (35 to 358)7 (2 to 17)8304 (263 to 342)14 (12 to 16)
55–64 2.795423 (3 to 87)2 (0 to 9)125 (22 to 28)3 (2 to 3)2.985725 (3 to 88)3 (0 to 10)125 (22 to 28)3 (2 to 3)
>64 1.779933 (11 to 77)3 (1 to 6)776 (53 to 104)6 (4 to 8)1.9310836 (11 to 81)3 (1 to 7)776 (52 to 105)6 (4 to 8)
Total 15.06 607 729 (270 to 1479) 13 (5 to 25) 37 1553 (1430 to 1673) 27 (25 to 29) 15.78 636 760 (282 to 1536) 13 (5 to 26) 39 1661 (1534 to 1782) 29 (26 to 31)
Bus 10.59 11 0 (0 to 93) 0 (0 to 2) 1 54 (33 to 75) 1 (1 to 1) 10.98 11 0 (0 to 93) 0 (0 to 2) 1 54 (33 to 75) 1 (1 to 1)
Slow modes* 18–34 1.41365874 (489 to 1402)57 (32 to 91)211156 (1090 to 1216)75 (71 to 79)1.43372892 (507 to 1427)58 (33 to 93)211155 (1090 to 1216)75 (71 to 79)
35–54 1.64426701 (402 to 1091)33 (19 to 52)19660 (599 to 722)31 (28 to 34)1.67433714 (409 to 1105)34 (19 to 52)20693 (633 to 758)33 (30 to 36)
55–64 0.83188207 (96 to 364)22 (10 to 40)23507 (478 to 536)55 (52 to 58)0.85193213 (101 to 375)23 (11 to 41)24528 (498 to 558)57 (54 to 61)
>64 0.8379249 (137 to 398)20 (11 to 32)62704 (621 to 787)57 (50 to 63)0.82390257 (142 to 406)21 (11 to 33)64728 (643 to 810)59 (52 to 65)
Total 4.68 1358 2031 (1124 to 3255) 35 (19 to 56) 125 3027 (2788 to 3261) 52 (48 to 56) 4.77 1388 2076 (1159 to 3313) 36 (20 to 57) 129 3104 (2864 to 3342) 53 (49 to 58)
Total 77.66 3913 5644 (3037 to 9358) 97 (52 to 161) 438 15 784 (15 068 to 16 484) 272 (260 to 284) 73.82 3773 5441 (2919 to 9071) 94 (50 to 156) 416 14 883 (14 189 to 15 572) 256 (244 to 268)
  • Between round brackets the 95% range is given for the health burden estimates.

  • * Slow modes include cyclists, pedestrians and mopeds.