Table 3

 Results of regressions on individual explanatory variables for traced handguns linked to violent and firearm related crimes, and for all traced handguns*

VariableHandguns linked to violent and firearm related crimesAll traced handguns
RR95% CIp ValueRR95% CIp Value
*Gun years of exposure/1000 is employed as an offset variable; results are on a per 1000 gun year basis.
†Results are for retailers with sales during one or more of the years 1997–2000, during which gun show sales were identified.
‡Results for all retailers with traced handguns: 351 subjects in the case of VFC handguns and 392 for all traced handguns.
§Measured at the county level.
¶Arrest rate.
RR, rate ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Variables measured at the retailer level
    Gun years of exposure, ×10001.011.00––1.010.04
    Years with handgun sales, n1.060.98––1.140.12
    Gun years from sales of inexpensive handguns, %1.031.02–1.05<0.00011.031.02–1.04<0.0001
    Gun years from sales at gun shows, %†1.000.99––1.000.33
    Gun years from police sales, %0.980.97–0.99<0.00010.980.98–0.99<0.0001
    Gun years from sales of multiple guns, %1.031.01–1.040.0041.021.01–1.040.004
    Denials, % (of sales + denials)1.811.66–1.97<0.00011.711.59–1.85<0.0001
    Median time to crime for traced guns, y‡0.830.77–0.90<0.00010.850.79–0.91<0.0001
    Median age of purchasers, y0.910.89–0.93<0.00010.920.90–0.93<0.0001
    Male purchasers, %0.920.90–0.95<0.00010.930.91–0.96<0.0001
    Retailer type (pawnbroker = 1, gun dealer = 0)1.751.28–2.380.00041.781.36–2.32<0.0001
Variables reflecting local gun commerce and tracing policy
    Federal Firearm Licensees per 100 000 people§0.940.92–0.95<0.00010.940.93–0.95<0.0001
    Retailer’s city traces all recovered guns (yes = 1)3.052.25–4.14<0.00012.822.14–3.70<0.0001
Crime rates per 100 000 people§
    Aggravated assault1.001.00–1.00<0.00011.001.00–1.00<0.0001
    Felony weapons offenses¶1.000.99––1.000.28
    Misdemeanor weapons offenses¶0.960.94–0.98<0.00010.960.94–0.97<0.0001
    Black population, %1.131.11–1.16<0.00011.131.11–1.15<0.0001
    Latino population, %1.031.03–1.04<0.00011.031.02–1.03<0.0001
    Unemployed people, % (of people ages ⩾16)1.111.03–1.200.0081.060.99–1.140.096
    Households headed by single females, %1.211.16–1.27<0.00011.181.14–1.23<0.0001
    Males ages 20–29, as % of males ages 40–441.011.01–1.01<0.00011.011.01–1.01<0.0001
    Median household income, ×$10000.990.98–1.000.0030.990.98–1.000.08
    Households per 10000 people1.001.00–1.00<0.00011.001.00–1.00<0.0001