RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Predicting drowning from sea and weather forecasts: development and validation of a model on surf beaches of southwestern France
JF Injury Prevention
JO Inj Prev
FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd
SP injuryprev-2020-044092
DO 10.1136/injuryprev-2020-044092
A1 Éric Tellier
A1 Bruno Simonnet
A1 Cédric Gil-Jardiné
A1 Marion Lerouge-Bailhache
A1 Bruno Castelle
A1 Rachid Salmi
YR 2021
UL http://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/early/2021/03/09/injuryprev-2020-044092.abstract
AB Objective To predict the coast-wide risk of drowning along the surf beaches of Gironde, southwestern France.Methods Data on rescues and drownings were collected from the Medical Emergency Center of Gironde (SAMU 33). Seasonality, holidays, weekends, weather and metocean conditions were considered potentially predictive. Logistic regression models were fitted with data from 2011 to 2013 and used to predict 2015–2017 events employing weather and ocean forecasts.Results Air temperature, wave parameters, seasonality and holidays were associated with drownings. Prospective validation was performed on 617 days, covering 232 events (rescues and drownings) reported on 104 different days. The area under the curve (AUC) of the daily risk prediction model (combined with 3-day forecasts) was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86). The AUC of the 3-hour step model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88).Conclusions Drowning events along the Gironde surf coast can be anticipated up to 3 days in advance. Preventative messages and rescue preparations could be increased as the forecast risk increased, especially during the off-peak season, when the number of available rescuers is low.