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Abstract
Objective Early onset of gun carrying correlates with a heightened risk of violent offences and injuries. This research estimates the association between state firearm legislation and first-time handgun carrying in the USA. It further identifies specific policy measures that could be most effective in discouraging the onset of risky gun-carrying activities.
Methods The study sample included 6194 youth (51% male, 49% female; 48% white, 27% black, 24% Hispanic and 1% other race and ethnicity) drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, with an average age of 14.3 at the first round of data collection. Participants self-reported when they first carried a handgun. Discrete-time survival analysis was used to model the likelihood of gun-carrying initiation over time, using an overarching state gun law environment score as well as proportionate scores for individual policy subcategories as primary predictors. Analyses were completed in 2024.
Results Approximately 30% of the study sample had initiated handgun carrying by the end of the study period. Individuals in states with a greater number of gun laws were less prone to begin carrying handguns. This association was notably stronger for males and white individuals. Laws that extend the firearm acquisition process and increase purchaser accountability were associated with a greater reduction in the initiation rates than other types of policy measures.
Conclusions State firearm legislation has the potential to deter the commencement of risky gun-carrying behaviour. It is recommended that states consider implementing, publicising and enforcing these laws to reduce gun-related mortality and morbidity.
- Firearm
- Youth
- Violence
Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open access repository. Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The NLSY97 general use data are publicly available online, while access to the restricted geocode file requires an application.
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Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open access repository. Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The NLSY97 general use data are publicly available online, while access to the restricted geocode file requires an application.
Footnotes
Contributors BD compiled the study data and drafted the initial version of this paper. DBW contributed to the conception and design of the work, as well as the interpretation of data. Both authors contributed to significant revisions and approved the final manuscript. BD assumes full responsibility for the work and/or the conduct of the study, had access to the data and made the final decision to publish. BD is the guarantor.
Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests None declared.
Patient and public involvement Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of this research.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
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