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Assessing the national and subnational firearm violence trends in Mexico from 1990 to 2019: secondary data analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study
  1. Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes1,
  2. Ana Melisa Pardo-Montaño2
  1. 1Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales Mexico, Mexico DF, DF, Mexico
  2. 2Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad de Mexico, Ciudad de México, Mexico
  1. Correspondence to Professor Ana Melisa Pardo-Montaño, Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad de Mexico, Ciudad de México, Mexico; melisa.pardo{at}comunidad.unam.mx

Abstract

Background Mexico is among the countries with the highest mortality rates by firearms worldwide. We aimed to analyse the trend in the burden of firearm violence (FV) by age and sex in Mexico at a national and subnational level, and the association between this burden and the Sociodemographic Index.

Methods We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-2019 study for the analysis of FV mortality, premature mortality and disability for all available age-groups and by sex. The GBD data separates FV into three categories—interpersonal violence from firearms, unintentional injuries from firearms and self-harm from firearms. We used a joinpoint regression analysis to analyse the temporal trends of the FV burden.

Results FV exhibited a non-significant increase. By cause, there was a significant increase in the burden of interpersonal violence from firearms, a non-significant decrease in the burden of self-harm from firearms and a significant decrease in the burden of unintentional injuries from firearms. Most of the FV burden is attributed to interpersonal violence from firearms. Almost the entirety of the burden of FV results from premature mortality. The incidence of FV disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was significantly higher among males than females, and was most concentrated in males aged 20–44 and females aged 15–49. Significant heterogeneity in FV DALY trends was observed at the subnational level.

Conclusion These results may help to better understand the burden of FV and help the design and implementation of national and local preventive policies.

  • Violence
  • Mortality
  • Epidemiology
  • Burden Of Disease

Data availability statement

Data are available in a public, open access repository. All data used in this research was publicly available at https://gbd2019.healthdata.org/gbd-results/

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Data availability statement

Data are available in a public, open access repository. All data used in this research was publicly available at https://gbd2019.healthdata.org/gbd-results/

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Footnotes

  • X @Clauch1980

  • Contributors CAD-C: Processed and analysed the data, wrote the first version of the manuscript and is responsible for the overall content as guarantor. AMP-M: Drafted the discussion and conclusion of the manuscript. Both authors designed and conceptualised the study, read and approved the final manuscript.

  • Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Patient and public involvement Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of this research.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.