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Original research
State assault weapons bans are associated with fewer fatalities: analysis of US county mass shooting incidents (2014–2022)
  1. Charles J DiMaggio1,
  2. Michael Klein2,
  3. Claire Young3,
  4. Marko Bukur2,
  5. Cherisse Berry2,
  6. Manish Tandon2,
  7. Spiros Frangos2
  1. 1Departments of Surgery and Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
  2. 2Department of Surgery, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
  3. 3New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
  1. Correspondence to Dr. Charles J DiMaggio, Department of Surgery, New York University Langone Medical Center, New York, NY 10016, USA; Charles.DiMaggio{at}nyulangone.org

Abstract

Background The need for evidence to inform interventions to prevent mass shootings (MS) in the USA has never been greater.

Methods Data were abstracted from the Gun Violence Archive, an independent online database of US gun violence incidents. Descriptive analyses consisted of individual-level epidemiology of victims, suspected shooters and weapons involved, trends and county-level choropleths of population-level incident and fatality rates. Counties with and without state-level assault weapons bans (AWB) were compared, and we conducted a multivariable negative binomial model controlling for county-level social fragmentation, median age and number of gun-related homicides for the association of state-level AWB with aggregate county MS fatalities.

Results 73.3% (95% CI 72.1 to 74.5) of victims and 97.2% (95% CI 96.3 to 98.3) of shooters were males. When compared with incidents involving weapons labelled ‘handguns’, those involving a weapon labelled AR-15 or AK-47 were six times more likely to be associated with case-fatality rates greater than the median (OR=6.1, 95% CI 2.3 to 15.8, p<0.00001). MS incidents were significantly more likely to occur on weekends and during summer months. US counties in states without AWB had consistently higher MS rates throughout the study period (p<0.0001), and the slope for increase over time was significantly lower in counties with AWB (beta=−0.11, p=0.01). In a multivariable negative binomial model, counties in states with AWB were associated with a 41% lower incidence of MS fatalities (OR=0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97, p=0.02).

Conclusions Counties located in states with AWB were associated with fewer MS fatalities between 2014 and 2022.

  • Firearm
  • Violence
  • Epidemiology

Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. Not applicable.

https://doi.org/10.1136/ip-2024-045263

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    Data availability statement

    Data are available upon reasonable request. Not applicable.

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    Footnotes

    • Contributors CJD conceptualised the study, conducted the analysis, wrote the first and final drafts of the manuscript, and and is responsible for the overall content as the guarantor. MK and SF edited versions 1–3 of the manuscript and contributed to content, approach and interpretation. MB, CB and MT edited version 3 of the manuscript and contributed revisions for intellectual content. CY contributed background material, compiled edits for versions 2–4 of the manuscript and prepared the manuscript for review and submission.

    • Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

    • Map disclaimer The depiction of boundaries on this map does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of BMJ (or any member of its group) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, jurisdiction or area or of its authorities. This map is provided without any warranty of any kind, either express or implied.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Patient and public involvement Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting or dissemination plans of this research.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.