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Effect of the non-application of the motorcycle male passenger restriction policy on the risk of homicides in Cali, Colombia
  1. Jorge Mena1,
  2. Andrés Fandiño-Losada1,2,
  3. María Isabel Gutiérrez1,2
  1. 1CISALVA Institute, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia
  2. 2School of Public Health, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia
  1. Correspondence to Dr Jorge Mena, CISALVA Institute, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia; jorgehmena{at}gmail.com

Abstract

Background Restrictions of male passengers of motorcycles to prevent homicides is a long-standing policy in Cali, Colombia. For some periods of time, the policy was suspended and then put into action again. All these changes were never evaluated and there has been controversy due to the perception of citizens, specifically motorcycle users, that the law was properly implemented in some periods and poorly applied in others. Our aim was to examine the effect of the non-application of the motorcycle male passenger restriction policy on the risk of homicides in Cali, Colombia.

Methods Ecologic study conducted using an interrupted time series analysis. The main outcome was the aggregated daily counts of homicides. Secondary outcomes were the aggregated daily counts of homicides using a motorcycle and using motorcycle and firearm. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were obtained by comparing periods of policy implementation with periods of lack of implementation in autoregressive negative binomial regression models.

Results There was an increased risk of homicides when the policy was not implemented (IRR=1.12; 1.05–1.19). There was no effect on the risk of homicides committed in motorcycles (IRR=0.98; 0.88–1.10) and when a motorcycle and firearm were used (IRR=0.99; 0.89–1.10).

Conclusions The lack of implementation of the ban of motorcycle male passengers was associated with an increased risk of homicides. Our findings support the importance of this policy to prevent homicides in Cali, Colombia. Future work should examine how this policy influences other policies related to prevent homicide and violent risk-related behaviour.

  • Time series
  • Policy
  • Public Health
  • Motorcycle
  • Violence

Data availability statement

Data are available up reasonable request. Data for the current study are available up reasonable request.

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Data availability statement

Data are available up reasonable request. Data for the current study are available up reasonable request.

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Footnotes

  • X @andres_fandino

  • Contributors JM was involved in the data collection and preparation of the final dataset for the analysis. All authors contributed to the analysis and the writing of the final manuscript. JM is the guarantor of the current study. JM accepts full responsibility for the finished work and/or the conduct of the study, had access to the data, and controlled the decision to publish.

  • Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Patient and public involvement Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of this research.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.