Urban traffic systems are experiencing an increasing array of dynamic factors, like new means of transport, new infrastructure, new technologies, or regulatory and behavioural changes. The existing models and tools are lagging in supporting cities in predicting road safety impacts of physical or regulatory interventions since (i) they tend to be strongly focused on vehicular traffic and are limited in their ability to model safety outcomes and impacts on other types of road users; and (ii) they are usually a static representation of the matter, which means that they do not respond adequately to the dynamics of events. Addressing these limitations is imperative for developing tools to better guide cities in anticipating and mitigating the potential road safety impacts encompassing a broader spectrum of road users and exhibiting dynamic responsiveness to the ever-evolving dynamics of urban traffic scenarios.

Recognizing that it demands large expertise and cutting-edge technology to overcome this challenge, the 3–5 years project PHOEBE, funded by UKRI and the European Commission, is developing a predictive approach for a safer urban environment structured as a framework. The framework combines the interdisciplinary power of traffic simulation, road safety assessment, human behaviour, mode shift and induced demand modeling, new and emerging mobility data, and socioeconomic assessments. The project has established the methodological approach with an emphasis on vulnerable road users. It is designed for cities to improve their understanding of the safety implications of future changes in the transport systems. We want to present it at the Safety 2024 conference.

The theoretical framework lists all the required data, models, and processes within each element that make up the PHOEBE Framework and the relationship between the components. It is represented by a series of process flow charts that define the framework inputs and outputs and the intermediary process steps. At the conference, we also plan to demonstrate how the framework deals with the different levels of analysis that this assessment requires (micro, meso, or macro). As the following steps, the PHOEBE theoretical framework will be tested in real-world scenarios in the three pilot sites of Athens, Valencia and West Midlands.