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  • Firearm manufacturing and imports in the USA and their association to firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean, 1991–2019

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Original research
Firearm manufacturing and imports in the USA and their association to firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean, 1991–2019
  1. Eugenio Weigend Vargas1,
  2. Zainab Hans1,
  3. Douglas J Wiebe1,2,3,
  4. Jason E Goldstick1,2,3
  1. 1 Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
  2. 2 University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
  3. 3 Injury Prevention Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
  1. Correspondence to Dr Eugenio Weigend Vargas; eugeniowv{at}gmail.com

Abstract

Background Firearm manufacturing and imports grew in the US during the mid-2000s. We hypothesise those increases corresponded to increased international firearms trafficking and in turn were associated with increases in firearm homicides abroad.

Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease database to quantify annual firearm and non-firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries, 1991–2019. We obtained US firearm manufacturing and import data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. We used two-way fixed effects regressions to estimate within-country associations between homicide rates (firearm and non-firearm) and US firearm manufacturing and imports.

Findings Firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries increased from 8.38/100K population in 2004 to 17.55/100 K in 2012 and remained steady thereafter. Those surges coincided with increases in US firearm manufacturing/imports (from 4.99 million in 2004 to 13.12 million in 2012). Non-firearm homicides remained roughly constant from 1991 to 2019. Adjusted analysis showed that an annual increase of one million firearms manufactured/imported in the US corresponded to an annual increase of 1.42 (95% CI 0.62 to 2.21) firearm homicides per 100 K in Central American and Caribbean countries. The corresponding change for non-firearm homicides was −0.18 (95% CI −1.46 to 1.11). We found country-to-country variability in these effects.

Interpretation Increases in US firearm manufacturing/imports were associated with increases in firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries but not associated with non-firearm homicides. The specificity to firearm homicides suggests possible international repercussions of increased firearm manufacturing and imports in the US implications are discussed.

  • Firearm
  • Mortality
  • Global

Data availability statement

Data are available on reasonable request. We compiled and analysed publicly available data.

https://doi.org/10.1136/ip-2023-045055

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    Data availability statement

    Data are available on reasonable request. We compiled and analysed publicly available data.

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    Footnotes

    • Funding This study was funded by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (R49CE003085), Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD108054).

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Patient and public involvement Patients and/or the public were not involved in the design, or conduct, or reporting, or dissemination plans of this research.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

    • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.