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PA 04-6-1315 Estimation of potential deaths prevented throughout the national road safety strategy in mexico
  1. Ricardo Pérez-Núñez1,
  2. Martha Híjar2,
  3. Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez3
  1. 1Secretaría de Salud, México, Ciudad de México
  2. 2Fundación Entornos A. C., Cuernavaca, México
  3. 3Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, México


Mexico adhered to the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 (DofA) promoted by United Nations. To this purpose, Ministries of Transport and Health conjointly published the National Road Safety Strategy 2011–2020 with the objective of preventing 50% of projected deaths to 2020. The Strategy undertakes main activities promoted by the Global Plan for the DofA. Both Ministries have moved forward different initiatives in parallel. However, few studies have documented progress towards the accomplishment of DofA goals in Mexico. The objective of this work was to estimate the number of potential road traffic deaths (RTD) prevented in the context of the National Road Safety Strategy up to 2016. A secondary analysis of national mortality information from 1999 to 2016 was conducted. Expected trend without the National Strategy from 2011 to 2020 was estimated through time series analysis (ARIMA models), using information from 1999 to 2010. We subtracted observed number of deaths from 2011 to 2016 from expected trend to estimate potential number of deaths prevented. A total of 14 225 deaths might have been prevented in Mexico during the first six years of the DofA. Trend of RTD has stabilized from 2013 to 2016 although RTD are still high: 16 185 individuals died in Mexico in 2016 representing a RTD rate of 13.2/100,000 inhabitants. Observed data from 2016 is still far from the goal established for that specific year. Main gains correspond to car occupants, while deaths in motorcyclists have steadily incremented during this period. While the country faces several challenges and unmet needs in terms of road safety, the stabilization of the number of RTD and its corresponding population death rate, is an evident progress. More work focused towards vulnerable road users is necessary, without putting aside the work that has proven to be effective in preventing RTD in car occupants.

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