Objective To access does falling history predict falls and fractures in postmenopausal women.

Introduction Falling tendency and low BMD are risk factors for fractures in the elderly. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if fall history is a predictor of postmenopausal falls and fractures. In addition, if fall risk predicts fractures differently according to type of fall and site of fracture, this association will also be estimated.

Methods Prospective cohort study. Falls were asked in postal enquiry of the population-based Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention (OSTPRE) Study in 1999 and 2004. Fractures in 1999–2004 were asked in 2004. A total of 8656 women responded to the fall and fractures questions. Women with falls were classified as occasional fallers (1 fall/year) and frequent fallers (2+falls/year). Odds Ratios (OR) was computed with logistic regression.

Results Women were 57–66 years old at baseline. Falling history predicted future falls with an OR of 2.59 (p<0.001) even more frequent future falls (OR=4.59, p<0.001). Falling history also predicted fractures with an OR of 1.39 (p<0.001). Fracture predictions according to different sites (wrist, hip and ankle) in association with falling history have been tasted and there were no significant differences were observed. The results remain statistically significant after adjustment with several confounding factors.

Conclusions Fall history is a stronger powerful predictor of future falls than fractures in postmenopausal women.