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113 Road traffic injury cost estimation by willingness to pay method
  1. Elaheh Ainy,
  2. Hamid Soori
  1. Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Centre of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences


Background There are different methods for injury cost calculation. This study is the first ever one using the willingness (WTP) to pay method a middle-income country such as Iran in 2013 to calculate the cost of road traffic injuries (RTIs).

Methods In a Cost Analysis Method study on costs resulting from RTIs, 846 people per road user were randomly selected and investigated. The research questionnaire was prepared based on the standard for WTP method; Contingent value (CV), stated preference (SP), revealed preference (RP) model considering perceived risks. The collected data were analysed after their strict control. Final analysis of WTP was carried out using Weibull model and Bayesian method.

Results Mean age of the subjects was 33.4 ± 9.9 years old. Mean WTP was 87 $ among these road users. Statistical value of life for one death and one injury cases were estimated 19,713,584,906 IRR and 2,412,582,500 IRR respectively. In sum, 20408 death and 318,802 injury cases amounted to 1,171,450,232,238,648 IRR equivalents to 39,048,341,074 $. Moreover in 2013, costs of RTIs constituted 6.46% of gross national income, which was 604,300,000,000 $. Findings obtained from Weibull model and Bayesian model showed that WTP had a significant relationship with age, gender, education, monthly income.

Conclusions Costs of traffic injuries were much higher than the global statistics. If policy making and resource allocation are made based on the scientific pieces of evidence, an enormous amount of capital can be saved through reducing death and injury rates. This method seems to be more precise method to traffic injury cost estimation than human capital method.

  • cost
  • death
  • injured
  • Willingness to pay
  • road traffic injury
  • contingent value (CV)
  • stated preference (SP)
  • revealed preference (RP)

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