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Road traffic accidents in the province of Milan (Italy): which risk factors?
  1. C Orsi*,
  2. P Marchetti,
  3. A Marinoni,
  4. A Morandi
  1. Correspondence Centre of Study and Research on Road Safety, University of Pavia, Via A. Bassi 21, 27100, Italy


Road accidents are a great problem in our society. To identify the major risk factors for road accidents in the province of Milan (Lombardy region, Italy), we analysed the police reports of more than 120 thousand road accidents that had occurred in 2004–2005. Using logistic regression, the adjusted odds ratios were calculated to estimate the likelihood of being injured or of dying rather than of being unhurt. Analysis were conducted for the drivers of all vehicle types collapsed, and separately for the drivers of each vehicle category. The most important findings are the following. The risks of being injured or of dying are higher for riders of two-wheeled vehicles compared to car drivers and decrease from bicycles to motorcycles to mopeds. Women have a higher risk of being injured (OR 1.98, 95%CI 1.91 to 2.05) but a lower risk of dying (OR=0.64, 95%CI 0.42 to 0.99). Compared with people younger than 30 years, people aged ≥65 have a higher risk of dying (OR 2.84, 95%CI 1.84 to 4.32). Accidents which occur during the night and during the week-end are more serious. Accidents on extra-urban roads are more dangerous than those in the urban area; accidents on motorways have a risk of death higher than those in urban areas (OR 2.05, 95%CI 1.43 to 2.95), while the risk of being injured is smaller (OR 0.44, 95%CI 0.42 to 0.46). The most dangerous accidents are the single-vehicle ones. The analysed database offers a consistent image of accidents in a broad metropolitan area, and supplies many elements of scientific evidence useful to plan preventive interventions.

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