Prevention of motor-vehicle deaths by changing vehicle factors

Leon S Robertson

doi:10.1136/ip.2007.016204

Responses

Original Article

Prevention of motor-vehicle deaths by changing vehicle factors

Compose a Response to This Article

Compose Response

Title *

Author Information

Contributors
First Name and Middle Initial * First or given name, e.g. 'Peter'. Last Name * Your last, or family, name, e.g. 'MacMoody'. Email Address * Your email address, e.g. higgs-boson@gmail.com Occupation * Your role and/or occupation, e.g. 'Orthopedic Surgeon'. Affiliation * Your organization or institution (if applicable), e.g. 'Royal Free Hospital'.

Statement of Competing Interests

Competing interests? *

Yes

Please describe the competing interests

PLEASE NOTE:

A rapid response is a moderated but not peer reviewed online response to a published article in a BMJ journal; it will not receive a DOI and will not be indexed unless it is also republished as a Letter, Correspondence or as other content. Find out more about rapid responses.
We intend to post all responses which are approved by the Editor, within 14 days (BMJ Journals) or 24 hours (The BMJ), however timeframes cannot be guaranteed. Responses must comply with our requirements and should contribute substantially to the topic, but it is at our absolute discretion whether we publish a response, and we reserve the right to edit or remove responses before and after publication and also republish some or all in other BMJ publications, including third party local editions in other countries and languages
Our requirements are stated in our rapid response terms and conditions and must be read. These include ensuring that: i) you do not include any illustrative content including tables and graphs, ii) you do not include any information that includes specifics about any patients,iii) you do not include any original data, unless it has already been published in a peer reviewed journal and you have included a reference, iv) your response is lawful, not defamatory, original and accurate, v) you declare any competing interests, vi) you understand that your name and other personal details set out in our rapid response terms and conditions will be published with any responses we publish and vii) you understand that once a response is published, we may continue to publish your response and/or edit or remove it in the future.
By submitting this rapid response you are agreeing to our terms and conditions for rapid responses and understand that your personal data will be processed in accordance with those terms and our privacy notice.

I agree to and have read the terms and conditions for rapid responses and BMJ Privacy Notice *

CAPTCHA

This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

Vertical Tabs

Other responses

Jump to comment:

More on Robertson's paper
Tony H. Reinhardt-Rutland
Published on: 13 May 2016
Author's response
Leon S. Robertson
Published on: 13 May 2016
Vehicle factors: engineering improvement does not necessarily deliver
Tony H. Reinhardt-Rutland
Published on: 13 May 2016

Published on: 13 May 2016
More on Robertson's paper
- Tony H. Reinhardt-Rutland, Reader in Psychology
Dear Editor
I offer brief rejoinders to Robertson's critique of my comments:
(a) Robertson may indeed have all the data available for the specified vehicles in his statistical analysis. Nonetheless, the theoretical underpinnings in any such statistical analysis assume an infinite population from which the real-world data are drawn.
(b) I am not an adherent of the risk compensation hypothesis, wh...
Show More

Dear Editor
I offer brief rejoinders to Robertson's critique of my comments:
(a) Robertson may indeed have all the data available for the specified vehicles in his statistical analysis. Nonetheless, the theoretical underpinnings in any such statistical analysis assume an infinite population from which the real-world data are drawn.
(b) I am not an adherent of the risk compensation hypothesis, which is normally attributed to Wilde. Rather I find Fuller's [1] learning theory more satisfying. Whatever one may think about individual theories, it is certainly the case that engineering interventions can entail untoward side-effects which can undermine their expected beneficial effects.
(c) Those who can be adversely affected whatever the merits of engineering interventions might be are often pedestrians and cyclists. In the UK and many other European countries, a real problem relating to obesity arises from the perceived and actual dangers of the roads for pedestrians and cyclists. Hence, the wide-spread "school run", for example [2]. This problem is associated - amongst other things - with engineering interventions designed to improve the conditions for drivers. It will not likely be reversed by further such interventions.
References
1. Fuller R. On learning to make risky decisions. Ergonomics 1988; 31: 519-526.
2. Hillman M, Adams J, Whitelegg J. 1991. One false move: A study of children's independent modility. Policy Studies Unit, London.
Show Less

Conflict of Interest:
None declared.
- Back to top
Published on: 13 May 2016
Author's response
- Leon S. Robertson, retired
Dear Editor
Point A. The vehicles I studied are not a random sample but all of the specified vehicles in use (except pickups) during the period studied. Therefore, random sampling error does not apply. The paper clearly states, “The mix of vehicles in other countries and the ratios of pedestrians and bicyclists to motor vehicles would undoubtedly alter the percentages but it is unlikely that vehicles characteristic...
Show More

Dear Editor
Point A. The vehicles I studied are not a random sample but all of the specified vehicles in use (except pickups) during the period studied. Therefore, random sampling error does not apply. The paper clearly states, “The mix of vehicles in other countries and the ratios of pedestrians and bicyclists to motor vehicles would undoubtedly alter the percentages but it is unlikely that vehicles characteristics would have a different effect in different countries.” As to some unknown factor being a confounder, I examined at all the known risk factors that could plausibly explain effects as large as those found. It behooves those who think otherwise to identify and research any that they think important rather than whine about some unknown risk factor.
Point B. The risk compensation hypothesis expounded by Adams and others has been repeatedly discredited by empirical evidence. See my book, Injury Epidemiology: Third Edition (Oxford University Press, 2007), pp, 187-194. In my study, death rates to bicyclists and pedestrians were lower among the more crashworthy vehicles, the opposite of the result predicted by risk compensation proponents.
Point C. I have no idea what obesity and removing stoplights (based on a reference to a newspaper article rather than a scientific paper) has to do with any possible effect of frontal offset and side crash test results in relation to vehicle impacts with pedestrians and bicyclists. In discussion of the lower rates of pedestrian and bicyclist deaths associated with vehicle crashworthiness, I stated in my paper, “ The significant correlation of reductions in pedestrian and bicyclist deaths with crash test results suggests the possibility of some degree of selectivity in buying vehicles that do well on crash tests by drivers less likely to hit other road users. They may also drive in environments where there is less exposure to pedestrians and bicyclists.” That is “thought to the matter”, which I am accused of having avoided.
Leon S. Robertson, Ph.D.
Show Less

Conflict of Interest:
None declared.
- Back to top
Published on: 13 May 2016
Vehicle factors: engineering improvement does not necessarily deliver
- Tony H. Reinhardt-Rutland, Reader in Psychology
Dear Editor
Robertson [1] has carried out correlational and regressional analyses of data concerning a number of vehicle factors and death rates of road users in the United States. Given the sometimes contentious issues that arise from such analyses, it behoves one to be cautious in what one concludes from this exercise. I list below three issues that are pertinent:
(a) The degree of precision stated for...
Show More

Dear Editor
Robertson [1] has carried out correlational and regressional analyses of data concerning a number of vehicle factors and death rates of road users in the United States. Given the sometimes contentious issues that arise from such analyses, it behoves one to be cautious in what one concludes from this exercise. I list below three issues that are pertinent:
(a) The degree of precision stated for the outcomes is unwarranted. For example, the precise statement in the Abstract that electronic stability control would have lowered deaths by 42% over the period of data collection would not have been appropriate if the sample of raw data had differed from what was obtained. Such differences can arise from unforeseen or overlooked predictor variables; even unexplainable random factors can seriously alter the constants obtained from such model-building [2]. Therefore, less precise figures should be entertained.
(b) The assertions regarding the potential effectiveness of electronic stability control call to mind comparable assertions in the United Kingdom over 20 years ago with regard to seat-belt use. Adams [3] has described the history in relation to the latter in some detail. His conclusion was that the initial estimates of the safety advantage before seat-belt use was made compulsory had been squandered after a year or two. I suggested [4] that the reason concerned the individual and vicarious learning experiences of drivers after some time in wearing seat-belts: the potential safety advantage had been lost because drivers have a propensity to learn more dangerous driving behaviours. The safety advantage had given way to a performance advantage. Similar arguments seem appropriate in predicting the long-term effectiveness of electronic stability control.
(c) A final issue must concern the effects on non-motorists, particularly pedestrians and cyclists - an increasingly important issue given the issues of obesity and so-called "sustainable travel" [5]. Robertson's assertion towards the end of his paper that "There is no reason to expect that front and side crashworthiness [of motor vehicles] would reduce pedestrian and bicyclist deaths" does not indicate that he has devoted much attention to this issue.
References
[1] Robertson LS. Prevention of motor-vehicle deaths by changing vehicle factors. Injury Prevention 2007; 13: 307-310.
[2] Green SB, Salkind NJ, Akey TM. Using SPSS for Windows. New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1997.
[3] Adams JGU. Seat belt legislation: the evidence revisited. Safety Science 1994; 18: 135-152.
[4] Reinhardt-Rutland AH. Behavioural adaptation and seat-belt use: a hypothesis invoking looming as a negative reinforcer. In: Transportation and Traffic Theory (A Ceder: ed). Amsterdam: Pergamon.
[5] Temko N. Stop! A London council wants to remove traffic lights from busy roads. Observer 2007; 30.09.07: 3.
Show Less

Conflict of Interest:
None declared.
- Back to top

Main menu

Plain text

PLEASE NOTE:

Vertical Tabs

Other responses

Jump to comment:

Log in using your username and password

Main menu

Log in using your username and password

You are here

Plain text

PLEASE NOTE:

Vertical Tabs

Other responses

Jump to comment:

Read the full text or download the PDF:

Log in using your username and password