Graduated driver licensing in the United States: evaluation results from the early programs
Section snippets
Background
Unintentional injury from motor vehicle crashes is the number one cause of death among teenagers in the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1997, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2002). Crash rates among young drivers age 16–19, per mile driven, are higher than those for all other age groups (Insurance Institute for Highway Safety [IIHS], 2000a) and the crash risk among 16- to 17-year-old drivers is almost three times as high as among 18- to 19-year-old
Methods
Typically, evaluations of GDL programs have used state crash data to determine the effect of the new GDL program on crashes, comparing crashes after the program to crashes before the program. Few evaluations have been able to include more than a year or two of data before and after program implementation, although a longer series would be desirable. Usually, a crash rate is determined based on the number of licensed drivers in the age group of interest, or based on the size of the state's
Results
Florida's GDL program was implemented July 1, 1996. The published evaluation of that program used pre- (1995) and post-program (1997) comparisons of 15- to 17-year-old driver fatal and non-fatal-injury crash rates (per capita), as well as a comparison with a border state, Alabama, which did not have GDL (Ulmer, Preusser, Williams, Ferguson, & Farmer, 2000). A reference group of older persons (25–54 years old) unaffected by the program was used in the analyses. Overall, there was a 9% reduction
Discussion
It is too soon to know if the observed crash reductions are due to young people driving more safely than previous to GDL. More likely, the reductions are due to reduced exposure. None of the studies above reported young drivers' exposure in terms of driving mileage or driving time so that it could be determined whether decreased driving exposure contributes to the decreased crash risk. However, there are indications that it is taking longer than previously for teens to become fully licensed to
Acknowledgements
This work was partially supported by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
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