Results of regressions on individual explanatory variables for traced handguns linked to violent and firearm related crimes, and for all traced handguns*
| Variable | Handguns linked to violent and firearm related crimes | All traced handguns | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RR | 95% CI | p Value | RR | 95% CI | p Value | |||
| *Gun years of exposure/1000 is employed as an offset variable; results are on a per 1000 gun year basis. | ||||||||
| †Results are for retailers with sales during one or more of the years 1997–2000, during which gun show sales were identified. | ||||||||
| ‡Results for all retailers with traced handguns: 351 subjects in the case of VFC handguns and 392 for all traced handguns. | ||||||||
| §Measured at the county level. | ||||||||
| ¶Arrest rate. | ||||||||
| RR, rate ratio; CI, confidence interval. | ||||||||
| Variables measured at the retailer level | ||||||||
| Gun years of exposure, ×1000 | 1.01 | 1.00–1.01 | 0.18 | 1.01 | 1.00–1.01 | 0.04 | ||
| Years with handgun sales, n | 1.06 | 0.98–1.16 | 0.16 | 1.06 | 0.99–1.14 | 0.12 | ||
| Gun years from sales of inexpensive handguns, % | 1.03 | 1.02–1.05 | <0.0001 | 1.03 | 1.02–1.04 | <0.0001 | ||
| Gun years from sales at gun shows, %† | 1.00 | 0.99–1.00 | 0.21 | 1.00 | 0.99–1.00 | 0.33 | ||
| Gun years from police sales, % | 0.98 | 0.97–0.99 | <0.0001 | 0.98 | 0.98–0.99 | <0.0001 | ||
| Gun years from sales of multiple guns, % | 1.03 | 1.01–1.04 | 0.004 | 1.02 | 1.01–1.04 | 0.004 | ||
| Denials, % (of sales + denials) | 1.81 | 1.66–1.97 | <0.0001 | 1.71 | 1.59–1.85 | <0.0001 | ||
| Median time to crime for traced guns, y‡ | 0.83 | 0.77–0.90 | <0.0001 | 0.85 | 0.79–0.91 | <0.0001 | ||
| Median age of purchasers, y | 0.91 | 0.89–0.93 | <0.0001 | 0.92 | 0.90–0.93 | <0.0001 | ||
| Male purchasers, % | 0.92 | 0.90–0.95 | <0.0001 | 0.93 | 0.91–0.96 | <0.0001 | ||
| Retailer type (pawnbroker = 1, gun dealer = 0) | 1.75 | 1.28–2.38 | 0.0004 | 1.78 | 1.36–2.32 | <0.0001 | ||
| Variables reflecting local gun commerce and tracing policy | ||||||||
| Federal Firearm Licensees per 100 000 people§ | 0.94 | 0.92–0.95 | <0.0001 | 0.94 | 0.93–0.95 | <0.0001 | ||
| Retailer’s city traces all recovered guns (yes = 1) | 3.05 | 2.25–4.14 | <0.0001 | 2.82 | 2.14–3.70 | <0.0001 | ||
| Crime rates per 100 000 people§ | ||||||||
| Homicide | 1.16 | 1.14–1.19 | <0.0001 | 1.15 | 1.12–1.17 | <0.0001 | ||
| Rape | 1.00 | 0.99–1.02 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 0.99–1.02 | 0.58 | ||
| Robbery | 1.01 | 1.01–1.01 | <0.0001 | 1.01 | 1.01–1.01 | <0.0001 | ||
| Aggravated assault | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | <0.0001 | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | <0.0001 | ||
| Felony weapons offenses¶ | 1.00 | 0.99–1.00 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.99–1.00 | 0.28 | ||
| Misdemeanor weapons offenses¶ | 0.96 | 0.94–0.98 | <0.0001 | 0.96 | 0.94–0.97 | <0.0001 | ||
| Sociodemographics§ | ||||||||
| Black population, % | 1.13 | 1.11–1.16 | <0.0001 | 1.13 | 1.11–1.15 | <0.0001 | ||
| Latino population, % | 1.03 | 1.03–1.04 | <0.0001 | 1.03 | 1.02–1.03 | <0.0001 | ||
| Unemployed people, % (of people ages ⩾16) | 1.11 | 1.03–1.20 | 0.008 | 1.06 | 0.99–1.14 | 0.096 | ||
| Households headed by single females, % | 1.21 | 1.16–1.27 | <0.0001 | 1.18 | 1.14–1.23 | <0.0001 | ||
| Males ages 20–29, as % of males ages 40–44 | 1.01 | 1.01–1.01 | <0.0001 | 1.01 | 1.01–1.01 | <0.0001 | ||
| Median household income, ×$1000 | 0.99 | 0.98–1.00 | 0.003 | 0.99 | 0.98–1.00 | 0.08 | ||
| Households per 10000 people | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | <0.0001 | 1.00 | 1.00–1.00 | <0.0001 | ||