Estimated effect of gun laws on trends in firearm-related death rates using negative binomial models
| Mortality | Trend before 1997 RR (95% CI) | Trend in 1997 and later RR (95% CI) | Ratio of slopes RR (95% CI), p value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firearm homicide | 0.971 (0.958 to 0.984) | 0.925 (0.881 to 0.973) | 0.955 (0.897 to 1.016), p = 0.15 |
| Firearm homicide (omitting mass shootings) | 0.961 (0.948 to 0.973) | 0.925 (0.880 to 0.973) | 0.965 (0.908 to 1.024), p = 0.2 |
| Total non-firearm homicide | 1.011 (1.001 to 1.021) | 0.976 (0.954 to 0.999) | 0.965 (0.932 to 0.999), p = 0.05 |
| Total homicide (all methods including firearm) | 0.999 (0.992 to 1.006) | 0.967 (0.946 to 0.988) | 0.968 (0.943 to 0.993), p = 0.01 |
| Firearm suicide | 0.970 (0.964 to 0.977) | 0.926 (0.892 to 0.961) | 0.954 (0.922 to 0.987), p = 0.007 |
| Total non-firearm suicide | 1.023 (1.018 to 1.029) | 0.959 (0.951 to 0.968) | 0.938 (0.920 to 0.956), p<0.001 |
| Total suicide (all methods including firearm) | 1.010 (1.005 to 1.015) | 0.956 (0.948 to 0.964) | 0.946 (0.930 to 0.963), p<0.001 |
| Unintentional firearm deaths | 0.924 (0.907 to 0.942) | 1.085 (0.975 to 1.207) | 1.171 (1.070 to 1.282), p = 0.001 |
| Total firearm deaths | 0.967 (0.961 to 0.973) | 0.936 (0.912 to 0.961) | 0.968 (0.940 to 0.997), p = 0.03 |