Examining the relationship between the prevalence of guns and homicide rates in the USA using a new and improved state-level gun ownership proxy

Inj Prev. 2014 Dec;20(6):424-6. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2014-041187. Epub 2014 Apr 16.

Abstract

Determining the relationship between gun ownership levels and firearm homicide rates is critical to inform public health policy. Previous research has shown that state-level gun ownership, as measured by a widely used proxy, is positively associated with firearm homicide rates. A newly developed proxy measure that incorporates the hunting license rate in addition to the proportion of firearm suicides correlates more highly with state-level gun ownership. To corroborate previous research, we used this new proxy to estimate the association of state-level gun ownership with total, firearm, and non-firearm homicides. Using state-specific data for the years 1981-2010, we modelled these rates as a function of gun ownership level, controlling for potential confounding factors. We used a negative binomial regression model and accounted for clustering of observations among states. We found that state-level gun ownership as measured by the new proxy, is significantly associated with firearm and total homicides but not with non-firearm homicides.

MeSH terms

  • Firearms / legislation & jurisprudence*
  • Firearms / statistics & numerical data
  • Homicide / legislation & jurisprudence*
  • Homicide / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Licensure
  • Ownership / legislation & jurisprudence*
  • Ownership / statistics & numerical data
  • Prevalence
  • Proxy
  • Regression Analysis
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Wounds, Gunshot / mortality*
  • Wounds, Gunshot / prevention & control