Changes in collision rates among novice drivers during the first months of driving

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Abstract

As a group, young drivers have crash rates that far exceed those of older, experienced drivers. But even among teenagers there are age-related differences; crash rates decline consistently and dramatically with each yearly increase in age. A more precise understanding of how crash rates decline within the teenage group might provide insights into when experience is most influential. To address this issue, this study examines month-to-month changes in collisions among new drivers. It was found that crash rates drop most dramatically during the first 6 months of driving. Involvement in certain types of crashes—e.g. run-off-the-road, single-vehicle, night, weekend—declines more rapidly. The findings suggest that novices improve their driving in a relatively short period of time. A graduated driver licensing system is identified as an effective method for ensuring that this development takes place in a more forgiving environment.

Introduction

It has been known for decades that young drivers have crash rates far exceeding those of older, experienced drivers. For example, Williams (1999) reported that in 1995 in the United States 16–19-year-old drivers were involved in 17 crashes per million miles of travel compared with drivers in their early 20s and those 40–44, who were involved in 9 and 4 crashes, respectively, per million miles. Crash rates remained low throughout middle age but increased again among senior drivers although to a level well below that of the youngest drivers—e.g. drivers age 70 and older were involved in 7 crashes per million miles of travel.

Although the crash rate is highest during the teenage years, within this period it declines consistently and dramatically with each yearly increase in age. These changes in crash rates over time, could be attributable either to experience (increase in skill) or to maturation (declining influence of lifestyle factors such as sensation seeking) or to a combination of these two factors. Research has shown that both are important (Mayhew and Simpson, 1990, Beirness, 1996). However, it has not been possible to determine the course of this influence—e.g. whether experiential factors are initially more important but give way later to age-related factors.

There is recent evidence from Norwegian and Australian studies that some beneficial effects of experience appear soon after the licensing test (Sagberg, 1998, Drummond, 2000). These studies show that the extremely high crash rate during the first year of driving is the result of a disproportionately high risk in the first few months after licensing. The sharp decline in crash rates shortly after licensing suggests that even limited driving experience has substantial beneficial effects. Sagberg (1998) also found that the overall decrease differed by type of collision and he speculated that certain driving skills are learned more quickly than others.

Sagberg’s findings have major implications for our understanding of the relationship between experience and safety. They suggest that the first few months of driving are critical, posing the greatest risk of collision for novice drivers and, therefore, the most important point for intervention. However, these provocative conclusions are based on a single study conducted in Norway, where the minimum driving age is 18. At issue is the extent to which the findings can be generalized to North America, where the licensing age is 16. To address this, the current study examined month-to-month changes in collisions among new drivers in a North American jurisdiction.

Section snippets

Method

Driver record and crash data were obtained for everyone who obtained learner’s permits during 1990–93 to operate a passenger vehicle in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. More contemporary data were not included because Nova Scotia radically modified its approach to licensing in 1994 by implementing a graduated driver license (GDL) program. The pre-GDL program in Nova Scotia was a more conventional approach, under which the novice was required to hold a learner’s permit for a minimum of 60

Results

Initial comparisons were of month-by-month changes in the crash rates of learners and novice drivers. For convenience, in this study a learner refers to someone who holds a valid learner’s permit; a novice refers to someone who has held a full license for at least 2 years.

Subsequently we focused on novice drivers in terms of demographics (gender and age) and crash characteristics (e.g. run-off-the-road and other types of crashes; single-vehicle and multiple-vehicle crashes; daytime, evening,

Summary and discussion

Consistent with previous research, this study found that increases in the length of time since licensure are associated with decreasing crash rates. Crash rates among novices are highest in the first months after licensure and drop substantially over the first 2 years of driving; the declines are most pronounced in the first 6 months. The involvement of certain crash types (run-off-the-road, single vehicle, night, weekend, and presence of two or more passengers) also declines more rapidly than

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

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