Objective To describe the temporal relationship between the road traffic mortality rate and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Brazil, and make an annual prediction of the evolution of both indicators until 2020, the end of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) monitoring period.
Methods Brazilian road traffic mortality rate official data were described from 2000 to 2015, while the GDP per capita official data were described from 2000 to 2013. GDP per capita and traffic mortality rate predictions were performed until 2020 using fractional polynomial analysis. Correlations were assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient.
Results From 2000 to 2015, there were over 446 000 road crashes fatal victims in Brazil. The road traffic mortality rate was positively related to the Brazilian GDP per capita, with a strong correlation (r=0.89; p<0.001) from 2000 to 2013 and a mild correlation (r=0.55; p<0.001) considering the whole period (2000–2020). The predictions show a reduction on the road traffic mortality rates in Brazil; however, if this same reduction pace continues, we estimate that the country will reach 12.4 road crash deaths per 100 000 inhabitants in 2020, a reduction of only 13.4% compared with 2015.
Conclusion If the same mortality reduction pace continues in Brazil, the country will not reach the proposed SDG, which is to reduce by half the number of deaths per 100 000 inhabitants. In addition, an intertwined conciliation between economical growth, sustainable development and public policies is needed in order to meet such an overwhelming goal.
- Sustainable Development Goals
- traffic crashes
- mortality rate
- gross domestic product
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Contributors All authors elaborated the design of the study. CB performed the statistical analyses, and contributed to writing and revising the manuscript. RCM collected the data, and contributed to writing and revising the manuscript. JCC and LICR contributed to writing and revising the manuscript. All authors critically revised and approved the final version of this manuscript.
Competing interests None declared.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Data sharing statement All data used in this study are publicly available in the Brazilian registries. Refer to the reference list in order to locate the links to retrieve the data.
Correction notice This article has been corrected since it was published Online First. The name of the third author, Janaína Calu Costa, has been corrected.
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