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Re: Trend not seen in England
Submit responseDear Editor
I see Mr Wilson used E-codes 810-819, which includes motor vehicle occupants, motorcyclists, pedestrians, and bicyclists. Our study included only drivers (4th digit of E-code = .0). I wonder if he would get the same results if he looked at 810-819 using only 4th digits of .0. One other potential explanation for the differences between the two countries is that we looked at driver involvements in crashes, not deaths in crashes.
My guess is that England also is experiencing the phenomenon of higher licensure rates among older drivers and higher annual average kilometers of vehicle-travel per older driver since 1983, which would increase the exposure of their older drivers and passengers to occupant injury risk. We are grateful for his taking the time to provide these valuable data.
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Trend not seen in England
Submit responseDear Editor
Lyman et al. report an increasing trend for the over 70s to be involved in fatal crashes in the US. It is possible to replicate part of their study for England using the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Death Statistics. These data are coded using ICD9 and hence a motor vehicle accident is coded in the range E810 to E819.
The death rates per 100,000 population were calculated using ONS annual population estimates for the years 1979 to 1999, for those aged 70 and over, and are reported below
Table 1 Deaths as a result of a motor vehicle accident, counts and rates per 100,000, 1979 to 1999.
Male
Female
Overall
Year
Deaths
Rate per 100,000
Deaths
Rate per 100,000
Deaths
Rate per 100,000
1979
475
41.6
631
45.3
1106
43.7
1980
529
46.4
632
45.5
1161
45.9
1981
396
35.2
395
28.9
791
31.8
1982
486
44.6
521
39.4
1007
41.7
1983
449
43.6
491
39.2
940
41.2
1984
476
48.5
508
42.7
984
45.3
1985
472
45.9
528
42.7
1000
44.2
1986
514
48.0
482
37.6
996
42.3
1987
465
41.5
497
37.3
962
39.2
1988
415
35.4
481
34.7
896
35.0
1989
480
39.6
515
36.0
995
37.6
1990
506
43.1
517
37.7
1023
40.2
1991
423
36.8
467
35.2
890
36.0
1992
422
37.4
420
32.5
842
34.8
1993
372
33.3
349
27.5
721
30.2
1994
352
31.7
296
23.6
648
27.4
1995
314
28.4
334
26.8
648
27.5
1996
309
28.0
261
21.1
570
24.3
1997
327
29.6
251
20.5
578
24.8
1998
296
26.9
235
19.3
531
22.9
1999
322
29.4
236
19.7
558
24.3
When plotted these data demonstrate that in England the death rate in the over 70s has been declining since the early 1980s and are now stable. There has not been the 34 % increase observed in the US. The data available for this response does not allow an exploration of why this is so, it is possible that road speeds are slower, response times by emergency services are faster, the cars older people drive are safer, or that our older people are just safer drivers.
References
S Lyman, S A Ferguson, E R Braver, and A F Williams. Older driver involvements in police reported crashes and fatal crashes: trends and projections Inj Prev 20028:116-20.
Office for National Statistics. (1999) 20th Century Mortality (England & Wales 1901-1995) CD-ROM (with updates). London.
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