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Factors predictive of subsequent injury in a longitudinal cohort study
  1. Helen Harcombe1,
  2. Sarah Derrett1,
  3. Ari Samaranayaka2,
  4. Gabrielle Davie1,
  5. Emma Wyeth2,
  6. Suzanne Wilson1
  1. 1Injury Prevention Research Unit, Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
  2. 2Te Roopū Rangahau Hauora Māori a Ngāi Tahu (Ngāi Tahu Māori Health Research Unit), Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
  1. Correspondence to Dr Sarah Derrett, Injury Prevention Research Unit, Dunedin School of Medicine, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand; sarah.derrett{at}otago.ac.nz

Abstract

Objectives The aims are to: (1) Determine the cumulative incidence of self-reported subsequent injury (of any anatomical site or injury type) occurring between 3 months and 12 months after a sentinel injury among participants in the Prospective Outcomes of Injury Study in New Zealand and (2) Examine the preinjury and injury-related predictors of subsequent injury.

Methods Prospective Outcomes of Injury Study participants (n=2282) were interviewed 3 months, 5 months and 12 months after a sentinel injury event. Data were collected about a range of preinjury and injury-related factors at the 3-month interview and about subsequent injury at the 5-month and 12-month interviews. Poisson regression modelling was used to determine the preinjury and injury-related predictors of subsequent injury.

Results Between the 3-month and 12 month interviews 28% of the participants reported at least one subsequent injury. Subsequent injury was 34% more likely among participants with a prior injury affecting them at the time of the sentinel injury compared with participants without a prior injury affecting them, and more likely among non-workers (31% more likely) and trade/manual workers (32% more likely) compared with professionals. Participants whose sentinel injury was due to assault were 43% more likely to report a subsequent injury compared with those whose sentinel injury was accidental. A subsequent injury was 23% less likely if the sentinel injury was a lower extremity fracture compared with other injuries, and 21% less likely if the sentinel injury event involved hospitalisation.

Conclusions Among general injury populations it may be possible to identify people at increased risk for subsequent injury.

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